Bayesian statistics

Bayesian statistics draws inferences from data in a way that makes sense to ordinary humans. It directly addresses the questions people naturally ask, rather than inverting the questions for technical convenience.

Bayesian inference allows you to bring together all sources of information, subjective and objective. You can combine expert opinion or intuition with data, weighing each in the proportion appropriate for your situation. The weight given different kinds of information automatically adjusts according to the quantity and quality of each.

Because of this ability to adjust to new information, Bayesian methods naturally lend themselves to adaptive decision making, updating the representation of your knowledge of the world as new data become available.

For over a decade I applied Bayesian methods to cancer treatment, using these methods to design, simulate, and conduct adaptive clinical trials. Now I am applying these methods to business opportunities. I have extensive experience in Bayesian analysis and especially in the computational techniques necessary to make Bayesian methods practical.

You can see some of the journal articles and technical reports I have written in Bayesian statistics here and some of the software I have written here.

If you would like for me to help your company with Bayesian statistics, please let me know.