Comments on: Selection bias and bombers http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/ The blog of John D. Cook Sat, 11 Feb 2012 01:10:06 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: On Bias and Statistics « Tropewell http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-118002 On Bias and Statistics « Tropewell Mon, 28 Nov 2011 20:59:50 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-118002 [...] Via The Endeavor [...] [...] Via The Endeavor [...]

]]> By: On Bias and Statistics « Tropewell http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-109958 On Bias and Statistics « Tropewell Mon, 24 Oct 2011 16:52:51 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-109958 [...] The Endeavor 35.189758 -80.841029 Advertisement Eco World Content From Across The Internet. Featured on [...] [...] The Endeavor 35.189758 -80.841029 Advertisement Eco World Content From Across The Internet. Featured on [...]

]]> By: Brian’s Links 20 October 2011: Carnivory, Science, and Art « TheMoralMindfield http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-109192 Brian’s Links 20 October 2011: Carnivory, Science, and Art « TheMoralMindfield Thu, 20 Oct 2011 13:42:00 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-109192 [...] bias and WWII bombers. Where should we armor these shot up bombers? Wherever there are no holes… Follow the link to understand the [...] [...] bias and WWII bombers. Where should we armor these shot up bombers? Wherever there are no holes… Follow the link to understand the [...]

]]> By: Selection Bias and WWII Bombers | ≈42 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-107654 Selection Bias and WWII Bombers | ≈42 Wed, 12 Oct 2011 13:25:36 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-107654 [...] The Endeavor Share this:FacebookEmail Tagged with: bombers • Selection bias • world war II • [...] [...] The Endeavor Share this:FacebookEmail Tagged with: bombers • Selection bias • world war II • [...]

]]> By: DiSH lab blog » Blog Archive » A neat science riddle – can you solve it? http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-105593 DiSH lab blog » Blog Archive » A neat science riddle – can you solve it? Wed, 28 Sep 2011 20:44:52 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-105593 [...] neat science riddle – can you solve it?by Dr. T Category: Fun From the Endeavour by way of Marginal Revolution, who says: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help [...] [...] neat science riddle – can you solve it?by Dr. T Category: Fun From the Endeavour by way of Marginal Revolution, who says: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help [...]

]]> By: More on Democratic Consolidation and Time « Dart-Throwing Chimp http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-105148 More on Democratic Consolidation and Time « Dart-Throwing Chimp Sun, 25 Sep 2011 11:46:50 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-105148 [...] and the prospects for regime survival. (For a classic illustration of selection bias at work, see here.) LD_AddCustomAttr("AdOpt", "1"); LD_AddCustomAttr("Origin", "other"); [...] [...] and the prospects for regime survival. (For a classic illustration of selection bias at work, see here.) LD_AddCustomAttr("AdOpt", "1"); LD_AddCustomAttr("Origin", "other"); [...]

]]> By: Suzie http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-104315 Suzie Tue, 20 Sep 2011 13:40:41 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-104315 Wait, so what were the final results? Did a higher %age of bombers come back after the fleet was fitted with the armor in Wald's recommended areas? Wait, so what were the final results? Did a higher %age of bombers come back after the fleet was fitted with the armor in Wald’s recommended areas?

]]> By: British World War II Bombers – An Example of Why I love Economics « Portrait of the Economist as a Young Man http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-104237 British World War II Bombers – An Example of Why I love Economics « Portrait of the Economist as a Young Man Tue, 20 Sep 2011 00:21:21 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-104237 [...] http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/ [...] [...] http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/ [...]

]]> By: Visa http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-104061 Visa Sun, 18 Sep 2011 09:12:10 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-104061 I thought that was beautiful, and something that should be a part of basic education for everybody. How many decisions are poorly made because of the problem of silent evidence? This plagues everything from our social lives to government policy, and as a species it's about time we got over this. I thought that was beautiful, and something that should be a part of basic education for everybody. How many decisions are poorly made because of the problem of silent evidence? This plagues everything from our social lives to government policy, and as a species it’s about time we got over this.

]]> By: Can selection bias shoot down an argument? « The Melbourne Urbanist http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103881 Can selection bias shoot down an argument? « The Melbourne Urbanist Sat, 17 Sep 2011 07:59:07 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103881 [...] Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution recently provided a pointer to this great historical example by John D. Cook of the importance of selection bias. It isn’t specifically related to urban [...] [...] Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution recently provided a pointer to this great historical example by John D. Cook of the importance of selection bias. It isn’t specifically related to urban [...]

]]> By: Selection Effects « Marc Gawley http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103512 Selection Effects « Marc Gawley Thu, 15 Sep 2011 10:04:40 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103512 [...] here’s a good article on World War 2, regarding selection bias and aircraft design. An engineer was asked to inspect aircraft returning from battle over a period of time, and to come [...] [...] here’s a good article on World War 2, regarding selection bias and aircraft design. An engineer was asked to inspect aircraft returning from battle over a period of time, and to come [...]

]]> By: Statistics in a time of war | Blog of Leonid Mamchenkov http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103497 Statistics in a time of war | Blog of Leonid Mamchenkov Thu, 15 Sep 2011 07:40:10 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103497 [...] John D. Cook shares this interesting piece of history: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to their bombers. After analyzing the records, he recommended adding more armor to the places where there was no damage! [...] [...] John D. Cook shares this interesting piece of history: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to their bombers. After analyzing the records, he recommended adding more armor to the places where there was no damage! [...]

]]> By: Selection effects » Manlyisms http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103457 Selection effects » Manlyisms Thu, 15 Sep 2011 01:36:10 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103457 [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...] [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...]

]]> By: Alfredo http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103353 Alfredo Wed, 14 Sep 2011 10:12:24 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103353 Thanks. This is good stuff as teaching material. Thanks. This is good stuff as teaching material.

]]> By: The Spamlist! » The Importance of Selection Effects http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103246 The Spamlist! » The Importance of Selection Effects Tue, 13 Sep 2011 18:41:55 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103246 [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...] [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...]

]]> By: Thinking Statistically | Delightfully Distinctive COLRS http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103241 Thinking Statistically | Delightfully Distinctive COLRS Tue, 13 Sep 2011 18:09:55 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103241 [...] Selection Bias and Bombers [...] [...] Selection Bias and Bombers [...]

]]> By: John Thacker http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103227 John Thacker Tue, 13 Sep 2011 15:40:07 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103227 Alfredo: <a HREF="http://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/0204320000.pdf" rel="nofollow">Here's a reprint of one of his papers on the subject</A>, and <a HREF="http://www.jstor.org/pss/2288257" rel="nofollow">here's another source.</A> However, while I've heard this story many time before, I had not heard it claimed that he did this for the British, but rather for the US Navy. Alfredo:

Here’s a reprint of one of his papers on the subject, and here’s another source.

However, while I’ve heard this story many time before, I had not heard it claimed that he did this for the British, but rather for the US Navy.

]]> By: Rafael http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103226 Rafael Tue, 13 Sep 2011 15:31:48 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103226 Wald, Abraham. (1943). A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors. http://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/0204320000.pdf Wald, Abraham. (1943). A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors.

http://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/0204320000.pdf

]]> By: The Importance of Selection Effects « Daniel J. Smith http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103221 The Importance of Selection Effects « Daniel J. Smith Tue, 13 Sep 2011 15:11:45 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103221 [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...] [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...]

]]> By: The Importance of Selection Effects — Marginal Revolution http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-103220 The Importance of Selection Effects — Marginal Revolution Tue, 13 Sep 2011 15:01:54 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-103220 [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...] [...] love this example of the importance of selection effects: During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to [...]

]]> By: Alfredo http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-67838 Alfredo Fri, 25 Feb 2011 21:08:56 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-67838 Can you cite the source of this excellent example? Can you cite the source of this excellent example?

]]> By: Eugene http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-67821 Eugene Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:24:43 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-67821 Thanks, interesting story! Thanks, interesting story!

]]> By: Speedmaster http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-54147 Speedmaster Mon, 06 Dec 2010 15:53:44 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-54147 Fantastic example. Fantastic example.

]]> By: John http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-28002 John Sat, 28 Nov 2009 05:48:15 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-28002 Ling, I think the random firing assumption was justified at the time, given the state of technology. The standard error may have been larger than the size of an airplane. Ling, I think the random firing assumption was justified at the time, given the state of technology. The standard error may have been larger than the size of an airplane.

]]> By: Ling http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-27919 Ling Thu, 26 Nov 2009 21:09:06 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-27919 So is the assumption of random firing justified? So is the assumption of random firing justified?

]]> By: Best early blog posts — The Endeavour http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/comment-page-1/#comment-13138 Best early blog posts — The Endeavour Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:59:06 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/01/21/selection-bias-and-bombers/#comment-13138 [...] Musicians, drunks, and Oliver Cromwell The law of small numbers (part 1, part 2, part 3) Selection bias and bombers [...] [...] Musicians, drunks, and Oliver Cromwell The law of small numbers (part 1, part 2, part 3) Selection bias and bombers [...]

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