Comments on: Three reasons expert predictions are often wrong http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/ The blog of John D. Cook Sat, 11 Feb 2012 22:42:11 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: The most dreadful conclusion — The Endeavour http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-130958 The most dreadful conclusion — The Endeavour Mon, 16 Jan 2012 19:01:39 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/?p=1476#comment-130958 [...] Related post: Three reasons expert predictions are often wrong [...] [...] Related post: Three reasons expert predictions are often wrong [...]

]]> By: Why experts exaggerate — The Endeavour http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-117463 Why experts exaggerate — The Endeavour Sat, 26 Nov 2011 15:38:45 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/?p=1476#comment-117463 [...] are numerous other reasons experts may be wrong, some psychological and some [...] [...] are numerous other reasons experts may be wrong, some psychological and some [...]

]]> By: John Venier http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-13141 John Venier Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:52:36 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/?p=1476#comment-13141 John and Clift, for sure chemotherapy is a great example of something which is principally a poison whose action as a poison is the therapeutic effect which can be lifesaving. Same thing for Botox -- which was used to treat nerve disorders before the cosmetic effect was accidentally noticed. Before the medical use it was well known as one of the most deadly poisons there are. In that sense it is an even clearer example than a lot of chemotherapies, which are usually designed with a medical purpose in mind. Another example is foxglove, a deadly poison plant which can treat congestive heart failure. Although cultivated primarily for decoration and widely known as a deadly poison, its medical action to treat dropsy was also known at least to some for a long time. But the toxic action is again the same as the therapeutic action. Then come the drugs which have toxic side effects which are not the therapeutic effect. Finally, there are vital poisons as John mentions. Besides the metal ions he links to, vitamin A is a good exmple of something clearly poisonous in large amounts but necessary in humans. So it was just an off-the-cuff example which popped in my head when thinking of a seemingly straightforward question with an obvious pithy answer, but which really deserves much more discussion, particularly coming from an "expert". It was also on my mind since I go camping and rambling with my kids. John and Clift, for sure chemotherapy is a great example of something which is principally a poison whose action as a poison is the therapeutic effect which can be lifesaving. Same thing for Botox — which was used to treat nerve disorders before the cosmetic effect was accidentally noticed. Before the medical use it was well known as one of the most deadly poisons there are. In that sense it is an even clearer example than a lot of chemotherapies, which are usually designed with a medical purpose in mind. Another example is foxglove, a deadly poison plant which can treat congestive heart failure. Although cultivated primarily for decoration and widely known as a deadly poison, its medical action to treat dropsy was also known at least to some for a long time. But the toxic action is again the same as the therapeutic action. Then come the drugs which have toxic side effects which are not the therapeutic effect. Finally, there are vital poisons as John mentions. Besides the metal ions he links to, vitamin A is a good exmple of something clearly poisonous in large amounts but necessary in humans.

So it was just an off-the-cuff example which popped in my head when thinking of a seemingly straightforward question with an obvious pithy answer, but which really deserves much more discussion, particularly coming from an “expert”.

It was also on my mind since I go camping and rambling with my kids.

]]> By: John http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-13133 John Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:10:59 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/?p=1476#comment-13133 Clift, I thought about chemo too when I read JV's comment. Here's another examples: some nutrients are known as <a href="http://www.reasons.org/resources/connections/1999v1n3/index.shtml#vital_poisons" rel="nofollow">vital poisons</a>. A simple example is iron: we need it to survive, but it's harmful in large amounts. A more surprising example is arsenic. We actually need a little of it. Clift, I thought about chemo too when I read JV’s comment. Here’s another examples: some nutrients are known as vital poisons. A simple example is iron: we need it to survive, but it’s harmful in large amounts. A more surprising example is arsenic. We actually need a little of it.

]]> By: Clift Norris http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-13132 Clift Norris Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:01:16 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/?p=1476#comment-13132 To John Venier: I assume you are thinking about chemotherapy when you mention "poison"? In that instance, the poison might actually do a cancer patient some good! To John Venier:
I assume you are thinking about chemotherapy when you mention “poison”? In that instance, the poison might actually do a cancer patient some good!

]]> By: John Venier http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-13090 John Venier Mon, 09 Feb 2009 23:14:25 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/?p=1476#comment-13090 Also, you should add: 4. You don’t get invited to appear on talk shows, or given any media exposure, if you can't convey your analysis in a few-second sound bite. This has the tendency to force the expert to oversimplify, either in analysis or presentation. Imagine a medical "expert" being asked if poisons are good for you. What do you mean, you can't give a simple "yes" or "no" answer? On the other hand, the media seem to target a child's mentality. In that case the correct answer (in my sincere and honest opinion) to the above question is, "No! Never! Never ever! Yuck!!" even if it is not strictly true. Plus it is much more entertaining, especially if the "expert" mugs for the camera! Also, you should add:

4. You don’t get invited to appear on talk shows, or given any media exposure, if you can’t convey your analysis in a few-second sound bite.

This has the tendency to force the expert to oversimplify, either in analysis or presentation.

Imagine a medical “expert” being asked if poisons are good for you. What do you mean, you can’t give a simple “yes” or “no” answer?

On the other hand, the media seem to target a child’s mentality. In that case the correct answer (in my sincere and honest opinion) to the above question is, “No! Never! Never ever! Yuck!!” even if it is not strictly true. Plus it is much more entertaining, especially if the “expert” mugs for the camera!

]]> By: Jason Adams http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/02/09/three-reasons-expert-predictions-are-often-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-13074 Jason Adams Mon, 09 Feb 2009 17:11:33 +0000 http://www.johndcook.com/blog/?p=1476#comment-13074 Reconfirming my belief that the output of talking heads (and even news in general) is almost entirely noise. Reconfirming my belief that the output of talking heads (and even news in general) is almost entirely noise.

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