The title of this post is the last line of a 60-Second Science podcast. The podcast announces a recent study that says we tend to over-estimate our abilities before we start something new, but under-estimate our abilities once we get started. Sounds true to me.
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Tony 07.29.10 at 10:24
This phrase is really very interesting.
Christopher Bare 07.29.10 at 14:05
Hofstadter’s Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.
mac 07.29.10 at 17:46
Quite true, the second bit can be perhaps explained with the fact linear projections are easier to do than exponential ones: we tend to imagine our performance will be proportional to our current level of competence for all the time of our activity, but in fact we learn a lot and improve our efficiency while progressing in the work.
So really… one best estimation should be based on a derivative function of our original guess.
Leandro Penz 07.29.10 at 18:05
You can also say that we underestimate difficulty before we start trying.