We hardly ever know the future in as much detail as we’d like. We can’t know what a particular customer will buy, when a particular computer will crash, or exactly where the next gold deposit will be. But we can know what a kind of customer is likely to buy, about how many computers will crash this month, and the most promising place to dig for gold.
Probability gives us a way to proceed rationally in the face of uncertainty. It allows us to make the best decisions we can, given what we know and don’t know.
I’ve helped many business solve probability problems. Clients have wanted to know things like how reliable a data storage procedure is, long it should take to catch a spammer, and which treatments are most likely to treat cancer effectively. I’ve helped clients evaluate investments, design medical devices, and plan marketing campaigns. All these problems boil down to probability.
In addition to solving probability problems for business, I explain the solutions in terms that decision makers can understand. (A solution that no one understands well enough to act on doesn’t do any good.) Some clients come to me just for explanation. For example, a medical device manufacturer asked me to explain to their sales team what the medical literature had to say about their product. They needed to understand probabilities in a way they could confidently convey to their customers.
|“I met John a few years ago when I had been struggling for months with a problem in probability and statistics. John solved it overnight!” — A. Lester Buck III, Compact Data|
Whether you have a probability problem or need to explain probability, I can help. Please call or email so we can discuss your needs.
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