Business Forecasting and Management

Mathematics is a way of seeing. It allows you to see patterns invisible to the naked eye, to cut through noise and find the signal underneath.

Mathematics can give your business a way to quantify and substantially reduce your risk exposure, forecast future trends, and make more informed decisions.

man overlooking mountains

Mathematical models, when expertly constructed, guide decisions by capturing the essential aspects of reality while abstracting away non-essential complications. Creating such models requires more than a knowledge of mathematics. It requires a good understanding of the limitations of mathematical abstractions, knowing which complications are vital to capture and which can be ignored. It also requires expert judgment of how much confidence to place in the final results.

It may be surprising to think of mathematical models as simplifications, especially if you find mathematics intimidating. But mathematics really does simplify things. The complications it exposes were already there before.

“If people do not believe that mathematics is simple, it is only because they do not realize how complicated life is.” — John von Neumann

In order to be competitive, executives must take advantage of mathematical models in forecasting, risk modeling, and other aspects of management. However, this does not mean surrendering hard-won experience and intuition to computer algorithms. An expert consultant can help executives combine their experience and intuition with mathematical models. The question of whether you should use data or “go with your gut” is often a false dichotomy. A good mathematical model incorporates intuitive insights while at the same time learning from data. Intuition is used to jump start an analysis, but it can be corrected if data show initial assumptions to be in error.

If you would like to work with an expert both in formulating mathematical models and in knowing their limitations, please call or email to discuss your project.