Quantum superposition of malice and stupidity

Last night, several of us at YOW were discussing professional secrets, inaccuracies and omissions that are corrected via apprenticeship but rarely in writing. We were arguing over whether these secrets were the result of conspiracy or laziness. Do people deliberately conceal information to keep the uninitiated from really knowing what’s going on, or do they wave their hands because being precise takes too much energy?

I argued for the latter, a sort of variation on Hanlon’s razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. In this case, I didn’t want to attribute to conspiracy what could adequately be explained by laziness. Sins of omission are more common than sins of commission.

Brian Beckman’s comment on Hanlon’s razor was that there is a sort of quantum superposition of malice and stupidity. That is, you have some indeterminate mixture of malice and stupidity (or in the context of our conversation, conspiracy and laziness) that leads to the same results. This closely resembles Grey’s law that any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice. Being a physicist, Brian used a physical metaphor. He commented later that it may be possible in retrospect to determine whether some action was malicious or stupid, collapsing a sort of wave function.

Related post: Hanlon’s razor and corporations

Self-licking ice cream cones

In a comment to yesterday’s post on leadership, Dave Tate introduced me to the phrase “self-licking ice cream cone.” According to Wikipedia,

In political jargon, a self-licking ice cream cone is a self-perpetuating system that has no purpose other than to sustain itself. The phrase appears to have been first used in 1992, in On Self-Licking Ice Cream Cones, a paper by Pete Worden about NASA’s bureaucracy.

I touched on this in Maybe you only need it because you have it. Now that I know a vivid description for such things, I’ll have to use it more often.

Update: Maybe there should be a term for something that isn’t quite a self-licking ice cream cone, a system that serves some purpose other than sustaining itself but is still primarily about self perpetuation. Or maybe there should be a scale, say from 0 to 100, for the extent to which an organization is useless and self-perpetuating.

I’m reminded of the Blue Bell Ice Cream advertising slogan: We eat all we can, and we sell the rest. A self-licking ice cream cone would correspond to the employees eating all the ice cream, a sort of ice cream co-op. An organization that isn’t entirely about self-preservation might be one in which the employees manage to sell 20% of the ice cream.

Related post: Parkinson’s law

Nobody's going to steal your idea

When I was working on my dissertation, I thought someone might scoop my research and I’d have to start over. Looking back, that was ridiculous. For one thing, my research was too arcane for many others to care about. And even if someone had proven one of my theorems, there would still be something original in my work.

Since then I’ve signed NDAs (non-disclosure agreements) for numerous companies afraid that someone might steal their ideas. Maybe they’re doing the right thing to be cautious, but I doubt it’s necessary.

I think Howard Aiken got it right:

Don’t worry about people stealing your ideas. If your ideas are any good, you’ll have to ram them down people’s throats.

One thing I’ve learned from developing software is that it’s very difficult to transfer ideas. A lot of software projects never completely transition from the original author because no one else really understands what’s going on.

It’s more likely that someone will come up with your idea independently than that someone would steal it. If the time is ripe for an idea, and all the pieces are there waiting for someone to put them together, it may be discovered multiple times. But unless someone is close to making the discovery for himself, he won’t get it even if you explain it to him.

And when other people do have your idea, they still have to implement it. That’s the hard part. We all have more ideas than we can carry out. The chance that someone else will have your idea and have the determination to execute it is tiny.

Competence and prestige

The phrase “downward nobility” is a pun on “upward mobility.” It usually refers to taking a less lucrative but more admired position. For example, it might be used to describe a stock broker who becomes a teacher in a poor school. (I don’t believe that being a teacher is necessarily more noble than being a stock broker, but many people would think so.)

Daniel Lemire looks at a variation on downward nobility in his blog post Why you may not like your job, even though everyone envies you. He comments on Matt Welsh’s decision to leave a position as a tenured professor at Harvard to develop software for Google. Welsh may not have taken a pay cut — he may well have gotten a raise — but he took a cut in prestige in order to do work that he found more fulfilling.

The Peter Principle describes people how people take more prestigious positions as they become less competent. The kind of downward nobility Daniel describes is a sort of anti-Peter Principle, taking a step down in prestige to move deeper into your area of competence.

Paul Graham touches on this disregard for prestige in his essay How to do what you love.

If you admire two kinds of work equally, but one is more prestigious, you should probably choose the other. Your opinions about what’s admirable are always going to be slightly influenced by prestige, so if the two seem equal to you, you probably have more genuine admiration for the less prestigious one.

Matt Welsh now has a less prestigious position in the assessment of the general public. But in a sense he didn’t give up prestige for competence. Instead, he chose a new environment in which his area competence carries more prestige.

Related posts

You’ve got to do something with the duck

From Seth Godin’s Startup School:

So the first thing about the duck is that there are a lot of people who spend their time getting all their ducks in a row. … If you want to be a neurosurgeon, you spend 15 years of your life getting your ducks in a row and one day somebody says “Now you’re a neurosurgeon.” But if you’re an entrepreneur, you’re an entrepreneur. Immediately. … Along the way you can collect more ducks and get them in a row … You’ve got to do something with the duck.

Similar posts

Super-competence

Here’s another gem from The Peter Principle. The book coins the term “hierarchical exfoliation” to describe how organizations rid themselves of both the least competent and the most competent people.

… in most hierarchies, super-competence is more objectionable than incompetence.

Ordinary incompetence, as we have seen, is no cause for dismissal: it is simply a bar to promotion. Super-competence often leads to dismissal, because it disrupts the hierarchy

Emphasis in the original.

Related post: Intellectual traffic jam

Evaluate people by input or output?

According to The Peter Principle, people in hierarchical organizations tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they are incompetent. The way managers manage depends on whether they have achieved incompetence or are still on the path to it.

The competence of an employee is determined not by outsiders but by his superior in the hierarchy. If the superior is still at a level of competence, he may evaluate his subordinates in terms of the performance of useful work. … This is to say, he evaluates output.

But if the superior has reached his level of incompetence, he will probably rate his subordinates in terms of institutional values: he will see competence as the behavior that supports the rules, rituals and forms of the status quo. Promptness, neatness, courtesy to superiors, internal paperwork, will be highly regarded. In short, such an official evaluates input.

Emphases in the original.

Much of The Peter Principle is humorous and exaggerated, but the excerpt above is neither. It is simply a description of how organizations work.

Related posts

Hiring complementary talent

In their new book, Ed Burger and Mike Starbird relate the following incident from a symposium in honor of Albert Einstein.

One of the speakers told a story about being a young assistant to Einstein. He said that during the job interview with Einstein, he admitted that he didn’t know much about relativity, to which Einstein replied, “That’s OK. I already know about relativity.”

Trivial

Many of the things I once thought were trivial I now think are important. That is, I used to think they were trivial in the modern sense of being unimportant. Now I think they’re trivial in the classical sense of being foundational (from trivium, the first stage of a classical education).

In business, “trivial” means “vitally important if you’re actually doing the work, but not important if you’re just watching.”

Related link: Very applied math

80-20 software II

My previous post addressed an objection to apply the 80-20 rule to software. Namely, that even if every user uses only a small portion of the features, they use different portions, and so you can’t remove any of it.

In this post I’ll address a couple more objections. One objection is that if the 80-20 principle holds, you can apply it over and over until you’re left with nothing. That is, if 80% of your users are content with 20% of your features, then 80% of those users (64% of the original user base) will be content with only 20% of the most-used features (4% of the original features). Keep repeating until you’re down to one feature everybody loves.

First of all, it may indeed be true that you could apply the 80-20 rule more than once. Maybe 64% of users really are content with 4% of the features. Just because the rule doesn’t apply an infinite number of times doesn’t mean that you can’t apply it once or twice before it breaks down.

More fundamentally, there’s nothing magical about “80” and “20.” The more general and more realistic principle is simply that often return on effort is very unevenly distributed. Maybe 92% of customers use only 17% of features. Maybe 70% of customers use only 3% of features. The numbers vary.

If you do apply the rule repeatedly, you may get a different distribution each time. Suppose you first limit your attention to the most popular features, whatever percentage cut-off that turns out to be. Then within those functions, some will still be more popular than others. The proportions might not be the same as your first cut, but popularity will still be uneven until you get down to a small core of features that most people use.

But as I explained in the previous post, the time to talk about cutting features is before they are developed and deployed. Once a feature has shipped, it is extremely hard to remove.

Another objection is that it is impossible to predict what features users will want. You can’t know until you ship it. Certainly it’s easier to tell in hindsight what people want, but it’s going too far to say you cannot predict anything. If you really could not predict anything, then all software would be bloated. A great deal of software is bloated, but not all of it. Small, successful programs do exist.

Even if you could literally apply the 80-20 rule several times, big companies might not be content with the resulting market share. Suppose you could apply the 80-20 rule to Microsoft Word four times. Then 41% of customers would be content with 0.16% of the features. (I don’t think this is realistic, but let’s assume it is for the sake of argument.) Microsoft might not be happy with writing off 59% of their potential market up front. But a start-up might be thrilled to give up half their potential market in exchange for only having to develop a tiny fraction of the features.