John Ioannidis wrote an article in Chance magazine a couple years ago with the provocative title Why Most Published Research Findings are False. [Update: Here’s a link to the PLoS article reprinted by Chance. And here are some notes on the details of the paper.] Are published results really that bad? If so, what’s going wrong?
Whether “most” published results are false depends on context, but a large percentage of published results are indeed false. Ioannidis published a report in JAMA looking at some of the most highly-cited studies from the most prestigious journals. Of the studies he considered, 32% were found to have either incorrect or exaggerated results. Of those studies with a 0.05 p-value, 74% were incorrect.
The underlying causes of the high false-positive rate are subtle, but one problem is the pervasive use of p-values as measures of evidence.
Folklore has it that a “p-value” is the probability that a study’s conclusion is wrong, and so a 0.05 p-value would mean the researcher should be 95 percent sure that the results are correct. In this case, folklore is absolutely wrong. And yet most journals accept a p-value of 0.05 or smaller as sufficient evidence.
Here’s an example that shows how p-values can be misleading. Suppose you have 1,000 totally ineffective drugs to test. About 1 out of every 20 trials will produce a p-value of 0.05 or smaller by chance, so about 50 trials out of the 1,000 will have a “significant” result, and only those studies will publish their results. The error rate in the lab was indeed 5%, but the error rate in the literature coming out of the lab is 100 percent!
The example above is exaggerated, but look at the JAMA study results again. In a sample of real medical experiments, 32% of those with “significant” results were wrong. And among those that just barely showed significance, 74% were wrong.
See Jim Berger’s criticisms of p-values for more technical depth.