Later than you expected, but sooner than you think

The title of this post is the last line of a 60-Second Science podcast. [Update: looks like the link went away.] The podcast announces a recent study that says we tend to over-estimate our abilities before we start something new, but under-estimate our abilities once we get started. Sounds true to me.

4 thoughts on “Later than you expected, but sooner than you think

  1. Quite true, the second bit can be perhaps explained with the fact linear projections are easier to do than exponential ones: we tend to imagine our performance will be proportional to our current level of competence for all the time of our activity, but in fact we learn a lot and improve our efficiency while progressing in the work.

    So really… one best estimation should be based on a derivative function of our original guess. :)

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